Speak to any novice or person with a lack of interest in gambling and they will say it’s all about luck. You have as good a chance of winning, or losing as the next person. Whether it be rolling a dice, spinning a roulette wheel, or waiting for symbols to land on a slot machine. But it’s not quite as simple as that.
On the face of it, there is a probability of winning or losing. There’s cold, hard maths to that. At each game’s core, there are maths that will tell you the chances of winning or losing.
For example, in European roulette, you clearly have a 48.65% chance of the ball landing on black or red. There’s no debating that. Your probability of winning in roulette, however, is dependent on the bets you place. And that isn’t necessarily all about luck.
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The Basics of Probability
No matter where you are in the world, the basics of probability remain the same, whether you’re betting in the Monte Carlo Casino, Las Vegas or Casino Lisboa. In its simplest form, it measures the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring.
So, with a dice, you have a one in six chance of a number landing when it is rolled.
When used in casinos, the maths behind each game gives the casino the advantage, known as the house edge.
What is the House Edge?
Investopedia describes it: “The house edge, which is the odds advantage in the casino’s favor, represents the average gross profit that the casino can reliably expect to make from each game. On the games with the lowest house edge, a casino might be generating a meager profit of anywhere from around 0.5% to a bit over 2%. On other games, it may make profits of anywhere from 15% to 40%.”
That’s the same in both online and offline gambling. But then around the world, there are also rules and regulations which also influence probability. Let’s take the Portuguese market, as it is very similar to much of the rest of the world when it comes to well regulated gambling markets.
In the review of casinos Portugal online, games must use random number generators as part of licensing and regulation. A random number generator, or RNG, is a piece of software built into games that uses a complicated algorithm to create random sequences that are reflected in the outcome of the game, whether that be what symbols a slot machine lands on, or where the ball stops on a roulette wheel.
This probability is fixed, never changes and is designed to ensure fairness across the Portuguese gambling market for players. These are used in all well-regulated countries.
Manipulating the Math with Betting Strategies
As we’ve said at their core, the probability of an outcome happening doesn’t change in a game. It’s maths, science, and that can’t change. The probability of you winning, however, can change. Whether that be in a single game or securing profit long term.
And that’s all down to the knowledge of a game a player has and the strategy they adopt. That can begin with understanding probability and working with the Expected Value of a bet.
What is the Expected Value?
Outplayed explains: “In betting, the expected value (EV) is a measure of the potential value or profit that a bet can make over the long run, taking into account both the probability of winning the bet and the potential payout.”
A positive expected value means you can expect to make money on the bet long term, with a negative expected value having the opposite effect. So, you’re more likely to utilise more of your bankroll on the former.
Many players adopt strategies such as the Martingale Strategy or Fibonacci Sequence to alter their probability of winning long term, and there are many more too, all of which won’t alter the maths and the outcomes of the game themselves, but the probability of how successful you are on them.
To Sum Up
There is always going to be luck involved with gambling. After all, a player can’t manipulate the cards they are dealt, where a ball lands or when the reels stop spinning. Like in the Portuguese market, the American market and beyond, RNGs ensure outcomes are completely random.
However, players can use maths and strategy alongside the probabilities of a game to make informed decisions that can lead to better success long-term. And that’s where they intersect so finely and the reason why some of us are good gamblers, and some of us are pretty bad at it!
